Rates Announced for the Sept. 21–23 Spring Tide — 1.4 to 1.6 Times Normal Along the Bay Coast

Sonae-ya Non-Life Insurance and other insurers offering forecast-linked policies announced on the 19th that daily premiums for the bay coastal area will run 1.4 to 1.6 times the normal rate during next week's spring tide, from the 21st to the 23rd. As previously reported, rates climbed as high as 1.5 to 1.8 times normal during the Sept. 5–7 spring-tide observation campaign; this time's increase is somewhat smaller. A Sonae-ya spokesperson said, "We set this range closer to what actually happened last time. We'd like people to see the smaller increase as good news, even though rates are still going up."

In its weekly outlook issued on the evening of the 18th, the TDA Forecast Division said the permeation index is expected to hold mostly at "Medium" in the bay area from the 21st through the 23rd, and that it is "not currently anticipating" a brief spike to "Alert" levels like the one seen last time. Still, given that the Division repeatedly described the earlier spring-tide campaign's timing as "a calendar coincidence, unrelated to the ceremony," attention this time seems likely to focus less on the numbers themselves than on whether the rate movements again happen to overlap with any calendar event.

Shioji Parking, the bay-area parking operator, said it would again prepare its previously reported index-linked plan, opening five inland partner lots free of charge to monthly contract holders on any day the index reaches "Alert." A representative said, "We think it's less likely to reach 'Alert' this time than last, but we're not changing our preparations." Taxi operator Shiokaze Transport said it would maintain its existing 20% bay-area dispatch surcharge after 10 p.m. on "Alert" days without change.

The Consumer Affairs Agency's expert study group on index-linked pricing, chaired by Ritsuko Fukazawa as previously reported, had only just organized its three discussion points — advance disclosure, clear citation of the underlying forecast, and whether a surcharge cap is needed — at its first meeting on the 17th. Its secretariat said, "This spring tide's rates, and the forecast behind them, will be added to the materials for the next meeting as a real-world case." As previously reported, inquiries to the city's consumer affairs center topped 40 in two days during the last spring tide, and some within the study group say the trend in complaint numbers needs continued tracking.

Bay-area warehouse operators are also moving. Suhama Warehouse, previously reported, announced on the 19th a campaign offering a 10% discount on its "evacuation shelving" during the spring tide period, saying, "The index-linked burden can't be avoided, but we want to help shippers prepare." The Tokei Logistics Research Institute's August "Warehouse Market Monthly," previously reported, showed inland warehouse rents continuing to climb, and this spring tide could again push more shippers toward the "index evacuation" trend of shifting inventory inland.

A resident who runs a dried-goods shop in the bay area said, "I've gotten used to the rates going up. What helps is that the explanation for why the number is what it is has gotten more careful than last year." Some criticism arose last time over an "increase during Remembrance Day week"; this time, with no major ceremony overlapping the period, no notable criticism has surfaced so far. Sonae-ya said, "All we can do is keep repeating: rates are linked to the forecast. They are not linked to the calendar."